Do you connect these dots in the same way I do?
- The current practice in OSs and browsers of asking the user at install time whether to proceed with the install, as a way of avoiding security threats, just doesn’t work. Users do not have the right kind of information at that time to decide.
- The threat of compromised systems and data loss is severe enough that consumer and enterprise OSs will have to be designed in a different way to manage installation risks. The widespread acceptance of smartphone apps indicates that smartphones will need such protection, too.
- Google’s NativeClient project is a good way of handling the risk because it provides a sandbox, and it’s better than alternatives like Java and Flash because it allows apps to run faster (because the apps are compiled natively rather than into bytecode).
- Thus, webOS seems to provide a glimpse into what smartphone and desktop OSs will be like in coming years, if they deal with security threats in the inspired way detailed in the NativeClient design.
And there’s another force pushing Google’s Android smartphone OS in the same direction as webOS:
- Google always seems to prefer keeping its apps as platform-agnostic as it can by leveraging browsers when it can. The exceptions are Google Earth, GTalk, etc which must be installed either for performance reasons or to gain access to “hooks” in the OS that browsers can’t offer.
- Google’s apps for Android are Java-based (i.e., not browser-based) for apparently no strong reason. In fact, it seems that if Google had had Palm’s insights about how a web-oriented OS could be made back when Android was being designed, then Android would be very much like webOS so that Google wouldn’t have to split its app-building competence and resources across so many platforms (of course, the iPhone and Blackberry platforms would still make their own demands). Google’s efforts to build ChromeOS is another strong bit of evidence of its desire that there be fewer platforms and that they resemble browsers more.
- Eric Schmidt has said that Android and ChromeOS will eventually merge. I’m not sure if he came to this conclusion before or after learning about the design of Palm’s webOS, but webOS seems like a good hint of what such a merge would result in.
Am I pulling too hard on thin threads, or does this paint the same strong picture for you that Palm’s webOS really is a glimpse of the future? It sure is a fun way for me to stretch my thinking about what smartphones can do and be.
If this is an accurate prediction, then two consequences come to mind:
- Having Google compete in the same idea space will help inspire both toward even better ideas. Of course, Google won’t buy Palm (why would it need to?), and it’s unlikely that having similar platform designs will affect the market share of either of them. As long as Palm can capture a significant share of the growing global demand for smartphones, it should be able to survive. And it’s likely to always have an advantage over Android in the beauty of its UI, given the DNA of the two companies.
UPDATE: Google released an “NDK” for Android way back in June 2009, which sounds like webOS’ planned PDK and also sounds like it was built on NativeClient. So, my prediction above that webOS is the future of Android has things a bit turned around.
Also, although the NDK seems to have a very similar design to NativeClient, and might have been built on NaCl, I’m somewhat doubtful because NaCl relies heavily on a feature known as “segmented memory” in the 386 chip architecture, and I wonder if that same feature is present in mobile CPUs such as ARM.
UPDATE: Other devs are worried that we might lose the ability to view html source and thus lose one of the primary learning and innovation paths for web app devs.